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PHS - THE UNDISCOVERED GLOBAL STANDARD
Keynote Address by Martin Cooper
before the
Third Annual PHS Symposium and Exhibition
Sydney, Australia
July 31,1998
PHS has become a riddle to me - an enigma, a puzzle, a conundrum. As an engineer, scientist, and businessman, I have spent much of my life observing the behavior of technology, of systems, and of people and then using these observations to guide the industries in which I have been involved. Until now, there has been a clear path from science to observation to the reality of business.
Allow me to share a few examples:
I recently met with executives and sales people from Sapporo Beer Company Who use PHS as the high speed data medium to connect their computers to the main frame corporate data bases. They can place orders, check inventory and accomplish many things quickly that took lengthy calls and lots of time before PHS. There is no other wireless service with the speed and robustness to do this job.
Executives from Nichimen Corporation depend on PHS for e-mail as they travel, and even in their offices and homes, because PHS is faster and more convenient than the alternatives.
PHS is optimized for low mobility but people in Bangkok can hold successful PHS conversations while traveling at 80 kilometers per hour.
Millions of people are using PHS today in a variety of places for an even greater variety of purposes - and they use PHS because they choose to do so. They are not forced to use PHS - it's simply their best choice.
Well here are the puzzling observations:
Here is a magazine an article describing the explosive growth of the Palm Pilot personal digital assistant (PDA). THE Article said, "Within 18 months, Palm had shipped more than 1 million Pilots. The pilot sold faster than cell phones, pagers and even color TV. It was the fastest-selling computer product EVER."
So, why didn't the author mention PHS, a similar product that sold many times more devices?
I attended the CommunicAsia conference in Singapore a few months ago and witnessed a huge display showing the future potential for third generation cellular. The service will offer, some time in the future the capability to offer a total of 384 kilobits per second in over 5 megahertz of radio spectrum. In the longer range future, this could be as much as 2 megabits per second. The display failed to mention that these speeds could be attained for just one user in this 5-megahertz channel at one time. As the number of users increases the data rate is shared among them. And yet PHS offers 32 kilobits per second - today - 64 kilobits per second will be available soon, and higher rates are inevitable.
There is the mystery, the puzzle.
As we all know, two years ago, PHS was the fastest selling consumer product ever. And it was the telecommunications industry phenomenon. Today, confusion reigns. Opinions are expressed from the extreme of ?gPHS is dead?h to ?gPHS is a powerful global standard in the making?h with today's events representing only a small pause for repositioning.
Let us consider what is needed to create a global standard?
First, the technology must be solid, robust, and a truly open standard. It must fill a need better than competing technologies.
Second, the technology must be commercially proven, under real world conditions and with real world traffic conditions.
Third, it needs to have a lot of industry support, multiple sources of supply, and economies of scale.
Fourth, and most importantly, there has to be an effective marketing plan - a vision - and that vision must be communicated to the world. The distinctions and uniqueness must be conveyed to the financial, commercial and consumer worlds in a compelling and forceful way.
How does PHS measure up to these criteria?
PHS is an extremely flexible standard that supports walkie-talkie, home cordless, indoor PBX, public access and wireless local loop. It is accepted as an ITU standard and has been made available to the public through PHS MoU Technical Specifications and other documents. It offers services and capabilities that are just not possible with competing technologies.
PHS has nearly 6.5 Million users after only 3 years of operation in Japan. PHS public service is going commercial this month in Thailand and is scheduled to go into operation in several other countries in 1999. There are more than 48 PHS-Wll projects going on around the world in 34 different countries.
There are 85 companies that support the PHS MoU Group and now 4 regional PHS Forums. There are 20 manufacturers of PHS handsets and 15 of PHS base stations. It is estimated that more than 15 million PHS handsets have already been produced.
So what's missing? The marketing, of course! It's wonderful that we have accomplished all these great things, but the problem is that virtually no one outside this room knows about the capabilities, achievements, and potential of PHS. Great standards become global standards because companies are willing to fight for them. And fighting requires a plan of attack, and an organized consistent, industry-wide, well funded, public relations plan.
Here are some other facts about PHS that the world hasn't heard about:
1) Total traffic on the PHS systems in Japan has grown continuously since the inception of PHS, there has never been a slowing of its astonishing growth.
2) DDI has recorded 6 continuous months of net additions
3) PHS is going commercial this summer in Bangkok
4) The World's Largest Telecommunications Company in the World, Alcatel, has just joined the PHS MoU Group and it selling a product to the world's largest carrier, NTT.
5) PHS is the most successful WLL technology worldwide (most PHS users in Japan are using the service as a second line at home), not to mention the 34 countries in which PHS is being deployed
6) PHS is the most successful short messaging service worldwide
7) Already Japan's PHS carriers have invented "Enhanced PHS" through new technologies and products and the returns are just around the corner
8) All PHS carriers are looking at PHS as a strategic business in the future and the basis for shaping future wireless generations
Carriers, manufacturers, distributors, service companies, and others have invested billions of dollars to create the worldwide industry that we call PHS. But circumstances have brought our industry to a crossroads. There are competitors with less effective technologies but with very effective public relations who will take advantage of every weakness we display, every lack of resolve we exhibit.
The momentum of PHS is, once again, vigorous and energetic. It's time for us to tell the world. LET'S DO IT!
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